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 November 3, 2008

 US Dollar Forecast Depends On Risk Sentiment, NFPs Likely To Disappoint

The US dollar ultimately ended last week lower across the majors, falling nearly 1 percent against the euro but plummeting over 5 percent versus the Canadian dollar and more than 7 percent against the Australian dollar. Indeed, the commodity dollars held strong as oil bounced from Monday’s lows and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index managed to close the week above key support. Likewise, other traditionally risky assets like stock markets gained as well, suggested that a pick up in risk appetite help to drain demand for safe-havens like the greenback.

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 US Dollar and Japanese Yen Broadly Weak on Improved Risk Appetite

US Dollar and Japanese Yen weakness persists into the Asian afternoon, as strong gains in Asian stocks foster risk appetite. DJIA futures are up 112 pts, while Australian stocks closed with a 5% gain.

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 October 31, 2008

 US ECON: US Sept Consumer Spending Down 0.3% As Expected, Core PCE Index Up 0.2%

Personal spending in September fell for the first time in two years, although personal income managed a better-than-expected increase, the Commerce Department said today. Personal consumption expenditures fell 0.3% in September as expected, after remaining flat in August. That’s the first drop in two years and the largest since May 2005.

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 US ECON: Employment Cost Index Up 0.7% As Expected

US employment costs rose at their slowest annual pace in two and a half years last quarter, due in part to flat compensation costs for financial service sector workers, the Labor Department said today.

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